Arizona Congressional District 6

Tucson + Pima County. Rated Cook PVI R+2. 2024 final margin: approximately 2,300 votes. Latino share of the electorate: ~28%. Turnout elasticity is the single biggest lever here — canvassing for turnout, not persuasion, wins this district.

CD-6 is one of the four Arizona seats that has flipped more than once in the last decade. The district is anchored by Tucson's eastern suburbs, Sierra Vista, and retirement communities along I-10. Historical turnout is ~8 points lower in midterm years than presidential years, and the midterm turnout drop is steepest among Latino voters under 35 — the exact group where door-knocking shows the highest per-conversation turnout bump in peer-reviewed research. Our walks focus on precincts where 2024 Democratic performance was within 5 points of the district average but midterm turnout historically drops below 45%.